As the arizona monsoon season begins on june 15, conditions are such that meteorologists cant pin down what is expected to happen. The nam is characterized as a largescale atmospheric circulation that produces a distinct increase of warmseason june through september precipitation over north. Cmaq and the north american monsoon arizona air quality july and august, 2018 jonny malloy meteorologist. The monsoon season in arizona is from june 15 to september 30, but in phoenix it doesnt usually start until about early to midjuly with an average start date around july 7. The national weather service officially defines monsoon season as the period between june 15 and september 30. The storms usually peak between midjuly to midaugust and usually the monsoon season is over by around september. Rain may be a part of arizonas monsoon season, but having high dewpoints also bring about dust storms, strong winds, and even tornadoes.
You might not like these predictions about arizonas. Late start to 2019 monsoon season predicted for arizona. We just dont have a lot of historical precedent to build our forecast on. We all know that once temperatures start rising, monsoon season isnt far away. Rather than a wet and chilly season initially predicted, warmer than usual weather is likely on the horizon. Monsoon 2017 ends with below normal rains, accurate. The monsoon season in phoenix phoenix arizona waterfront. Maps are updated once a day from june 15 september 30th using gridded precipitation data nominally 4km by 4km provided by the national weather service advanced. If an above normal hurricane season in the eastern pacific materializes, it could boost the arizona monsoon. Arizona s monsoon season begins in june and continues through september. When i first arrived in arizona, i asked why a summer rain storm is called a monsoon storm.
If planning to visit or recreate in the southwestern united states in the summertime, its important to be aware of the afternoon thunderstorms typical of monsoon season. The chiricahua gap and the role of easterly water vapor. Adot urges drivers to be prepared for summer storms. In flagstaff, its usually weeks after that before the first significant rains start. The countrywide cumulative rainfall for the overall season from june 1 till september 30 was recorded at 841. With it comes higher humidity, which can lead to thunderstorms, heavy rain, lightning, hail, high winds, flash flooding, dust storms and extreme heat. Governor doug ducey has proclaimed june 11 17 monsoon awareness week in.
Arizona summer thunderstorm season is know as monsoon the beginning of july, the monsoon made its entrance. Apr, 2020 rain may be a part of arizonas monsoon season, but having high dewpoints also bring about dust storms, strong winds, and even tornadoes. Summer in arizona and throughout the southwest is monsoon season, which means a daily pattern of afternoon thunderstorms. There are multiple climatological factors that shape the southwest monsoon, guido said. Monsoon storms are definitely on their way to southern arizona, though predictions of when they will start vary. Oct 03, 2017 the fourmonth long southwest monsoon 2017 has officially come to an end today, with the country recording below normal rainfall to the tune of 95% of the long period average lpa. The monsoon lasts longer in the south, usually beginning around the middle of june.
Cmaq evaluation and feedback an arizona perspective summer season. Heavy rainfall may cause downstream flooding of streams, canyons, roads and trails during and after storms. May 27, 2017 these predictions for the monsoon season 2017 have been made in two time ranges of two months each junejuly and augustseptember. Predicting the weather begins off the coast of south america. According to the national weather service, it only takes on1 to 2 feet. Arizonas monsoon season begins in june and continues through september. Noaas 2017 eastern pacific hurricane season outlook predicts a nearnormal or abovenormal season.
Our monsoon is the most pronounced in southern arizona and becomes more marginal over northern arizona. Monsoon awareness week news for page lake powell arizona. Graham, runoff and flooding may be accelerated from the burn scar of the 2017 frye fire, as vegetative cover has been lost and water, soil, rocks and woody debris may move swiftly downslope without warning. While dramatic thunderstorms are the big stars of the monsoon, its the seasonal shift in wind, from about midjune to midseptember, that defines the phenomenon. If the monsoon were to be slashed 40 percent, that would cut our total annual rainfall by about. The monsoon is a season, during which the dry westerly winds that persist through fall, winter and spring shift to moist southerly winds, bringing thunderstorm activity into arizona. See long range weather forecasts for the next 60 days for the desert southwest region.
Late start predicted for 2019 arizona monsoon season williams. Jun 25, 2019 during the most recent episode, guido and crimmins discussed their predictions for the 2019 season based on forecasts and climate patterns, and how difficult it can be to predict the exact onset of the monsoon. Hi, have now setlled on three nights in tucson and one night in ajo as i am keen to visit organ pipe nm this august. In the phoenix area, the moisture is usually here by the first or second week in july. South arizona in monsoon season tucson forum tripadvisor. Youll be happy to hear these predictions for arizona s 2019 monsoon season. February 2020 long range weather forecast for desert southwest. The monsoon brings with it high winds, dust and down pours which can result in flash flooding. There is a 40% chance of an abovenormal season, a 40% chance of a nearnormal season, and a 20% chance of a belownormal season.
The fourmonth long southwest monsoon 2017 has officially come to an end today, with the country recording below normal rainfall to the tune of 95% of the long period average lpa. Cmaq evaluation and feedback an arizona perspective. Late start predicted for 2019 arizona monsoon season. In 2008, the national weather service officially declared the monsoon season to be june 15 september 30. While summer is a time of fun in the sun and letting go, it can also elicit fear in the hearts of arizonans. Long range forecasts are regional, not cityspecific. Or, perhaps most likely, it will be just about average. Whats ahead in 2018 after recordbreaking weather in 2017. Jul 25, 2010 the monsoon season in arizona is from june 15 to september 30, but in phoenix it doesnt usually start until about early to midjuly with an average start date around july 7. Its hard to say what all of this will mean for arizonas summer monsoon. After all, since monsoon season is a season, most people should not be concerned with whether or not a particular dust storm is. The 2017 arizona monsoon season will finish up just a little below average.
The monsoon season in phoenix phoenix arizona waterfront homes. Most of the rain came in a few storms in late july and early august. Right now, were typically still baking under 115 degree temperatures, waiting for some relief from the heat whenever we happen to find ourselves away from the air conditioner. A guide to arizonas monsoon season by teresa on aug. Focus on north american monsoon season july and august high spatial and temporal weather variations likely day 1 predictions. The monsoon season arrives in sedona sedona, arizona.
Jun 15, 2017 thursday marked the official beginning of the arizona monsoon that will last until sept. Ramesh, director general of imd, told a news conference. Department of hydrology and atmospheric sciences, the university of arizona, tucson, arizona manuscript received 24 february 2017, in. Arizonas summer monsoon season has been a lively one. Southwest monsoon 2017 to hit kerala by may 29 skymet.
Our monsoon picked up a lot of good activity, but for the shortterm it still has been a little dry in the southern part of the state, said selover, analyzing the 2016 summer storm season. The answer i received was that the continue reading the monsoon season. Jun 18, 2019 late start predicted for 2019 arizona monsoon season northern arizona meteorologists are predicting cooler water in the sea of cortez and a later start to the 2019 monsoon. Monsoon season regardless of the weather now begins each year on june 15 and ends september 30. The north american monsoon, variously known as the southwest monsoon, the mexican monsoon, the new mexican monsoon, or the arizona monsoon, is a pattern of pronounced increase in thunderstorms and rainfall over large areas of the southwestern united states and northwestern mexico, typically occurring between july and mid september. The official date for the beginning of the monsoon season in india is june 1 and a late of twothree days is considered to be normal. Cmaq and the north american monsoon arizona air quality.
At present, the northern limit of monsoon nlm is passing through latitude 5n longitude 80e, latitude 7n longitude 85 e, latitude 10n longitude 90e, maya bandar and latitude 16n longitude 98e. It reports both locally and from the services climate prediction center a function of the national oceanic and atmospheric administration in. These storms do not happen every day during monsoon season. Arizona monsoon season scottsdale forum tripadvisor. Summer 2017 temperature outlook from the weather company, an ibm. In 2008, national weather service officials decided to consider june 15september 30 as the u. Global warming is fueling arizonas monstrous monsoons climate. Am i correct that the monsoon season is characterised mostly by afternoon thunderstorms which blaze for a. This is the arizona monsoon, a seasonal phenomenon that gets its name from the arabic word mausim, which means season or windshift. Maps are updated once a day from june 15 september 30th using gridded precipitation data nominally 4km by 4km. Several bolts of lightning strike the northeastern rincon mountains, part of the tail end of a monsoon storm that just skirted the city, friday, august 4, 2017, tucson, ariz. Monsoons adot arizona department of transportation.
Jun 09, 2017 noaas 2017 eastern pacific hurricane season outlook predicts a nearnormal or abovenormal season. Late start predicted for 2019 arizona monsoon season northern arizona meteorologists are predicting cooler water in the sea of cortez and a later start to the 2019 monsoon. A hot spring could spark an early start to the monsoon. During the most recent episode, guido and crimmins discussed their predictions for the 2019 season based on forecasts and climate patterns, and how difficult it can be to predict the exact onset of the monsoon. A flash flood in midjuly 2017 took the lives of nine people in north phoenix.
Monsoon season now brings more extreme wind and rain to central and southwestern arizona than in the past, according to new research led by the university of arizona. That may or may not be good news based on whether youre an outdoorsy person or prefer to stay warm and cozy during this time. Roughly 50 percent of the time, though, southern arizonas first thunderstorms roll. Thursday marked the official beginning of the arizona monsoon that will last until sept. Regarding the approaching summer monsoon season, omalley explained that the intensity of the rainy season will be determined by the persistence. Ten tips to get your home ready for arizonas monsoon season. The moistureladen monsoon air travels north to arizona and new mexico, encouraged by the pressure difference between the hot, parched southwestern air and the cooler mexican air. Predictions from the climate prediction center show the chances are roughly. The 2017 southwest monsoon is weeks away, and the national weather service has released its forecast for the upcoming wet season. Unfortunately, its predictability becomes very low during the summer season, o malley said.
This time of year should be associated with afternoon rainstorms and. The answer i received was that the continue reading the monsoon season in phoenix. Noaas climate prediction center suggests well see over a 60% chance of aboveaverage temperatures in arizona. In 2017 we saw deadly hurricanes, horrifying wildfires, torrential downpours and warm temperatures in the middle of winter. During this time, arizona residents will typically see heavy desert rains, increased humidity, and. High elevation sites cmaq prediction range compared to reality. The official monsoon season starts june 15 and ends sept. To see long term forecasts for the entire year, pick up a copy of the 2020 old farmers almanac, available online and in stores. News for page lake powell arizona sponsored advert. These predictions for the monsoon season 2017 have been made in two time ranges of two months each junejuly and augustseptember. It looks like this year the summer monsoon got its start a little earlier than usual.
After debating whether i should make a monsoon 2017 video, i decided to do a short version this year. Apr 04, 2019 however, in arizona, the forecast can get tricky. Last years monsoon destroyed 400 utility poles in the valley by midaugust. Impact of the north american monsoon on wildfire activity.
The maps below are focused on capturing unique elements of the summer monsoon season across arizona including total precipitation, intensity, and frequency of precipitation events. Arizonas monsoon status arizonas monsoon is the northern extent of the north american monsoon, which begins in early june in central and southern mexico. Two ingredients are necessary to produce the monsoon. Arizona summer monsoon season precipitation mapping. India ratings cuts economic growth forecast for india to 3. The southwest monsoon season begins soon, and heres what. The old farmer s almanac s extended forecasts can be used to make more informed decisions about future plans that depend on the weather, from vacations and weddings to gardening, hiking, and other outdoor activities.
June 16 september 8, 2017 north american monsoon season cmaq data unavailable 712 714. Monsoon storms feature lightning, high winds with blowing debris, lashing down rain, etc. Panel recommends arizona drought declaration continue for. Jan 15, 2018 after debating whether i should make a monsoon 2017 video, i decided to do a short version this year. Prior to 2008, the phoenix area monsoon season was considered to start when there were three consecutive days that the dew point averaged 55 degrees or higher, but in 2008 the national weather service decided to take the guesswork out of monsoon start and end dates. Nature of arizona monsoon season makes it difficult to predict. Southwest monsoon 2017 to hit kerala by may 29 may 17, 2017 8. Nov 02, 2017 this feature is not available right now. They are often preceded by a gigantic haboob, which is an arabic word for a humongous dust storm that moves across the desert like a big red ghost.